Analysis of Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Introduction
The conflict of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be studied on several parameters. The Bosnian war was a classic example of identity conflict, but one cannot ignore the forces that made different groups, which were already existing together in Balkan region, to think that they cannot anymore survive in one niche. Recently, after 25 years of the Bosnian war the ethnic conflict is resurfacing. Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, announced in the month of October 2021 that the country's Serb run entity, Republic Srpska, will quit key state Institution to achieve full autonomy within the country [1]. This will lead to collapse of already decentralised system and violation of 1995 Dayton Accords. Fragile state system, Political void, outer powerful actors of international system are the factors today and were the factors 25 years back, hence it is important to look back to the cause of Ethnic cleansing during Bosnian war to stop the repetition of the same error.
History
The
history and settlement of tribes like Illyrians or Slavs goes back beyond 7th
century. In 16th and 17th century Bosnia was part of Ottoman empire, which
ended in the first half of 19th century when the ottomans start losing their
territory to the Europeans. In 1878, Berlin Congress decides to make Bosnia and
integral part of Austria- Hungary empire. The end of First World War saw
collapse of Austria-Hungary forces in the Balkan region. This was succeeded by
the formation of the land of South (Yugo) Slavs- Yugoslavia. Croat, Slovenia
and Bosnia territories which were also part of the previous empire United with
the Serbian Kingdom. The country lost
its territory of Croat region to Nazi during World War II[2]. It
was reunified at the end of world War when Josip Broz Tito a leader of Partisan
force took over the control. Yugoslavia stayed United and prospered under Tito,
further though it was a communist regime it broke away from Soviet influence
during cold War and was among the founding members of non-alignment movement.
It was in the late 80s and 90s that region underwent economic turmoil and
finally collapsed in early 1990s. The communist Party of different region
demanded their own separate entity this led to breaking of Yugoslavia into
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia and further into Republic
of Yugoslavia (later known as Serbia and Monterey). When Bosnia voted in favour
of Independence from former territory, the Serbs in the region boycotted the
Referendum in 1991 but Bosnian Muslim and Croats voted in favour and Bosnia was
formed against the wish of Serbs leading to Bosnian war (1992-1995).
The
situation of Bosnia and Herzegovina which led to Bosnian war can be analysed by
keeping factors such as demography, territorial identity, and fragile state
structure, economic and political instability in the view along with outer
influence. Following the dissolution of
Yugoslavia, the idea of ethnic identity as the basis for statehood was the main
driving force behind state formation. When one looks at Bosnia and Herzegovina
it is a blend of three ethnic group found in the region, the Bosnian’s who
followed Islam, Serbs were majorly Orthodox Cristian and Croatian’s were Roman
Catholics. Future, if we look at its
geostrategic position it is located between Serbia and Croatia, both with
strong identity affiliation making the state of Bosnia vulnerable to outer
influence. Additionally, the Balkan region had had numerous occupations and
changes of authority throughout the years, which frequently affected its
borders and population. These transition
of powers and invasion would cause shift in borders dividing the same ethnic
groups. These alterations from Ottoman to Austria to Hungarian empire followed
by Nazi allied occupation and then formation of Socialist Federation Republic
of Yugoslavia at the end of world war created a political vacuum. The Croat
Catholic Nationalism in the north and Serb Orthodox demanding autonomous
Serbian Principality in east had already gained momentum in the Austria –
Hungarian Empire[3].
The reason the Serbs boycotted the 1992
Bosnian independence referendum was because the Balkan region had been a
theatre of conflict for several powers both before and after the Second World
War, and a change in border would divide the groups in such a way that ethnic
identity, which had previously been majority, would now become minority. This
was one the main fear which was manipulated to mobilise the Serbs which
eventually led to Bosnia War (1992-1995).
The
1974 turning of Yugoslavia into six federation allowed the Muslim to establish
itself as a sperate identity. Earlier they were known as Serbs, Croat and
Bosnians. New terms were introduced in census. This resulted in a distinct
unique identity for the Serb Orthodox, Croat Catholic, Christian, and Muslim
communities. This change took away the security blanket of collective identity.
Bosnia which got independence in 1992 was a mix of all the three, forming three
different nations under one state, giving rise to tension which was already
present in the Balkan region but was under dormant security. On the outside
there were aspirations for State of Serbia and Croatia to integrate the region
under Bosnia and Herzegovina, which had their ethnic population, with them.
Also, the main reason for breakup of Yugoslavia was economic crisis, and the
newly formed state of Bosnia inherited that legacy. These economic challenges
intensified competition between the groups who were sharing the same fundamental
niche. The competition of resources accompanied by crisis made it easy to
mobilise the groups on the basis of identity. Bosnian Serbian General Ratko
Mladic called upon for the idea of Greater Serbia by arguing that rising Muslim
population is a threat to Serb ethnic group. Internally the state was
politically divided[4].
Each ethnic group had their own political parties, the fear of being outnumbered
overpowered fear of unemployment or stability. The votes were casted on the basis
of identity. This didn’t add to development of a proper structure and
functioning of state. Further the border demarcation of the Yugoslavia played
an important role.
The states were recognised on the basis of
1974 federation division. EU negotiator David Owen in his book Balkan Odyssey
points out that border readjustment prior to recognition could have pave way
for peaceful breakup of Yugoslavia. All this factor led to Bosnia war and the
Srebrenica Genocide. Srebrenica was important to Bosnian Serbs; it was centre
point of their imagined Great Republic of Serbs. The neighbouring country of
Serbia used Bosnia and Herzegovina's animosity and fear of being outnumbered to
carry out ethnic cleansing against Muslim men and boys on July 6, 1995. Bosnian
Serbs Broke the international regulations with the help of Serbia and launched
attack on the city killing 7000-8000 people. Dayton accord of 1995 ended the
bloodiest confrontation within the limits of Europe since World War II.
Conflict
cannot happen overnight. The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be difficult
to answer if one doesn't understand the Balkan region as a whole. No conflict
can be exclusive to any particular boundaries in case of ethnic conflict to be
particular. It is simple to get individuals to act in extreme ways by
convincing them that their safety depends on someone else's evacuation. Most
ethnic conflicts are fought to rid people of dread, and it takes an outside
power to acknowledge that there is such fear. The invasions and change of
empires in the Balkan region were one of the reasons why there was ethnic divide,
but Strong economic growth prevented a rush for essential resources. The loss
of economic security was what sparked the distress, and the ongoing shift in
balance of power had already produced a security conundrum between the groups.
[1] “Bosnia’s Political
Crisis: What You Should Know, in 600 Words | Politics News | Al Jazeera.”
[2] “Milestones:
1989–1992 - Office of the Historian.”
[3] Slack and Doyon,
“Population Dynamics and Susceptibility for Ethnic Conflict.”
[4] Slack and Doyon. “Population Dynamics and Susceptibility for Ethnic Conflict.”
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